Democrat Joe Biden has an agenda radically opposed to Donald Trump’s policies on a number of issues. Could he decide to lift the restrictions on Huawei once he takes office as President of the United States?
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Donald Trump’s decision was a thunderbolt in tech. While Huawei became one of the stars of the sector, the American president had dealt it a murderous blow by placing it on the list of risky companies last year. Huawei has been facing its competitors with a serious handicap: the Chinese firm no longer has access to a number of American technologies, notably Google services. Will the election of Joe Biden as President of the United States be a game-changer? The Democrat has a program radically opposed to that of Donald Trump on many subjects and he seems much more tempered than his opponent. Unfortunately for lovers of beautiful smartphones, the game is far from won for Huawei.
Donald Trump’s decision may have taken the sector by surprise, but it is not in reality to be attributed to his temperament. “This policy has been developed and pushed for years by the United States Department of Commerce in reaction to China’s growing ambitions.”Explains Jean-François Dufour, director of DCA Chine-Analyze. Beijing wants to become number 1 in many strategic sectors, from artificial intelligence to 5G, including biotechnologies and electric vehicles. “And the United States takes a very dim view of these ambitions”Confided Mary-Françoise Renard, head of the Institute for Research on the Economy of China (IDREC) three months ago.
Washington is not the only one to play the game of restrictions: Beijing has forbidden its soil to many American firms (Google, Facebook, Twitter) and has been for a long time. But why is Huawei at the forefront of this conflict? This is of course not because of these phones (however successful they are). If the United States is targeting this company, it is because it is it that gives China its head start in 5G. And that 5G is itself the keystone of many other strategic innovations ”Whether it’s the autonomous vehicle, factory 2.0 or smart grids, almost all of the future technologies that China wants to develop are based on 5G. If Washington puts a stop to this level, it actually slows down the entire Chinese tech sector”Explains Jean-François Dufour.
Within Strategy Analytics, we are hardly more optimistic for Huawei. “Partial easing of restrictions on Huawei and Honor is possible in 2021 but removal of all bans is highly unlikely”Confirms analyst Neil Mawston. Huawei’s negotiations with the United States will therefore always be as delicate. The only difference is that they will take place in a more peaceful atmosphere. Better than nothing.
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